ANALISIS KOMPARASI LEAST SQUARE DAN SES DALAM MERAMALKAN BAHAN BAKU PEMBUATAN GULA MERAH

In the current era of globalization, business in Indonesia is experiencing rapid development. One of them is Aya Home Industry, whose business is engaged in the production of brown sugar, whose production process uses the main raw materials in the form of sap and food coloring. Currently, decisions regarding the amount of brown sugar production only depend on the owner's intuition, resulting in losses for the business which can result in excess inventory or lack of supply. Therefore, we need a forecasting system for raw materials for making brown sugar using two methods, namely Least Square (LS) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Through the integration of these two methods, we can make more accurate estimates of brown sugar production, optimize inventory so as to increase operational efficiency, reduce the mismatch between supply and demand. After observing data on sales of brown sugar from October 2022 to October 2023, the forecasting results obtained by the two methods were the most accurate in predicting brown sugar raw materials in the form of white sugar, sap, coloring, namely the single exponential smoothing (SES) method. namely in the following period using alpha 0.9 with the smallest MAPE error rate of 8.56%, namely 502 kilograms of white sugar, 201 kilograms of sap, and 20 packets of dye.