PENERAPAN DATA MINING DALAM PERAMALAN PENJUALAN CABAI MERAH

ABSTRACT

APPLICATION OF DATA MINING IN FORECASTING SALES OF RED CHILLI

By : Alex Rivaldo Jose Pandiangan (18.22.0626)

This research applies the double exponential smoothing method in forecasting red chili sales for the "Mak Fitri" business. This business is a red chili trader operating in the context of a local market. The double exponential smoothing method is used to optimize forecasting of red chili sales required by Mak Fitri's business. In this research, we collected historical data on red chili sales by Mak Fitri's business over the last few months. This data includes various factors such as season, weather, price, and other factors that influence the demand for red chilies in that location. Then identify recurring sales patterns in this data. By using the double exponential smoothing method, by comparing actual sales data with the sales profile that has been created previously. This makes it possible to more accurately forecast red chili sales for the coming period. The results of this research can provide valuable insight to Mak Fitri's businesses in inventory planning and making more efficient decisions in their operations. The application of this double exponential smoothing method provides concrete benefits in managing the supply and demand for red chilies at the local business level, helping to reduce the risk of stock shortages or excesses. In conclusion, this research provides a useful contribution to the development of a smarter business strategy for Mak Fitri's business in the red chili market with forecasting results for red chilies in January 2023 of 1370 kg by measuring the average percentage of absolute error between the predicted value and the actual value of 13.54%.

Keywords : Forecasting, Double exponential smoothing, Red Chili Sales.